ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF SOCIETAL AND PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS ON MITIGATING SARS-COV-2-RELATED IMPACTS ON MALARIA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS: A MATHEMATICAL MODELING PERSPECTIVE
ABSTRACT: Malaria remains a significant global public health challenge, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths each year, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in December 2019, a novel pneumonia-like condition, known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), emerged with several clinical, epidemiological, and biological similarities to malaria. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in the disruption of healthcare services due to societal measures, potentially exacerbating malaria morbidity, co-occurrence with COVID-19, and mortality rates. This study investigates the impact of urban lockdowns and chemotherapeutic interventions on the dynamic interaction between human and mosquito populations. Additionally, we quantify the percentage increase in malaria-related deaths due to limited access to healthcare services.
Firstly, we calculate the basic reproduction number, which serves as a key determinant of disease transmission. We analyze the stability of the system, examining the existence of disease-free and endemic equilibria points. Our findings indicate that the disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number, denoted as R0, is less than 1, signifying the disease’s decline. Conversely, when R0 exceeds 1, the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable, leading to the persistence of the disease within the population.
Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis identifies the parameters primarily responsible for disease transmission concerning R0. The analysis reveals a 10% increase in malaria-related deaths in endemic malaria regions during lockdowns, specifically in the year 2020. This underscores the need for heightened vigilance and concurrent monitoring of both diseases. Notably, conducting malaria and COVID-19 screenings and tests for suspected or confirmed COVID-19 patients simultaneously can prevent misdiagnosis and facilitate effective management. Maintaining critical preventive measures, implementing long-term suppression strategies, and ensuring access to healthcare services for malaria during lockdowns can significantly mitigate the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria.
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