Utilizing Geographic Information System Technology to Analyze Urban Densification and Housing Market in Bida, Nigeria.
Urban densification, a consequence of escalating urbanization, presents significant challenges to housing affordability due to soaring property prices, escalating rental values, and a demand-supply imbalance for urban residents. This study delves into the concept of urban densification as a component of urban growth and investigates its role in providing essential spatial insights into the housing market of Bida, with a particular focus on prevailing submarkets.
Census sampling techniques were employed to gather data from a total of 31,410 buildings in 2008, 46,489 buildings in 2013, and 47,394 buildings in 2018. Additionally, 138 houses managed by three registered estate firms in Bida were included in the study. Satellite imageries from Google Earth, captured at maximum resolutions for the years 2008, 2013, and 2018, were used to obtain relevant data, while handheld GPS devices were utilized to record coordinates of rental properties managed by registered estate surveyors and valuers.
The study employed Point Density spatial analysis and Ordinary Kriging (OK) to assess residential density and rental prices, respectively. Furthermore, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach using Map Algebra tool in ArcGIS was adopted to analyze and predict residential density and housing prices.
Key findings indicate that the pattern of densification in Bida adheres to urban economic theory for monocentric open cities, while the OK model contradicted Alonso’s monocentric theory. The ANN model predicted that residential densities will continue to rise along the urban-rural gradient, leading to a transition of open spaces and low-density areas into medium and high-density zones in the future, maintaining its monocentric nature. Concurrently, rental prices of housing apartments are expected to decrease with decreasing distance to the city center.
In light of these findings, rational densification for urban development is recommended to counter the increasing residential density that encroaches on green and open spaces, thus promoting sustainable growth and housing affordability.
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